A renowned market strategist who called a bubble Dot-Com, warns US stocks, are exposed to “serious risk” because the optimism of technical analyst begins with sour sour

• Albert Edwards warns decreasing optimism analysts for American technological shares could mean problems.

• Historically, an acidic analyst optimism led to poor performance of the stock market.

• The capitalization of technological stocks now exceeds the levels of Dot-Com and leaves the market vulnerable, he said.

Societe Generale Strategist Albert Edwards has long been skeptical that AI warehouses in the US could live by humbuku surrounds them. Now it seems that shares analysts covering the technology sector are also starting to grow.

In the client note published on Thursday, the wearers of Edwards often published a number of charts that they think should take a break for investors because the shares remain close to the historic maximum. They show analytics of optimism sour on technological shares that have supported the impressive rally on the market – the development it said builds “at a serious risk”.

Here are several of them. The first is the twelve -month gliding average of the percentage of analysts who upgrade the forecasts of sharing earnings. Since the beginning of 2024 it will drop from approximately 58% to 50%, but Nasdaq 100 has continued its increase. Historically, such dowstrends in optimism coincided with a submergey below the 200 -day NASDAQ average.

“If there is a rapid decrease in optimism analytics for NASDAQ 100 What to go through, the tide goes fast,” Edwards wrote. “In fact, it is a minor macro miracle that the index is still trading over its 200 MAV, let alone the maximum.”

There was also disconnected between the expectations of analysts about earnings and how well the earnings were successful with lagging reality. Now it seems that expectations are beginning to change south, because the end earnings are equal and do not reach.

And the estimates for the S&P compossite 1500 began to rotate for the first time from their reflection at the chatgpt.

“It's the graph below that investors should be really nervous about,” Edwards wrote. “Regardless of” fluctuations “from games played around the reports, the analyst optimism for the S&P 500 was a series of lower maximum and lower minimum. As 6 and 12 months are averages. ”

Again, Edwards emphasizes that the problem of acidic expectations is that the outlook of investors is already in extreme extremes and anything that does not reach these extremes is a disadvantage.

“At normal times, this would not be a serious threat to investors in our own capital, but it is a potentially high risk when we are high -nose appreciation and optimism.”

Here is the view of how the foaming technology sector and American stocks got. Technical shares now make up a higher percentage of the market than during the DOT-Com-Coz bubble, Edwards is known by calling-A US stocks are now an exaggerated 75% of the global market ceiling.

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In addition, the real market performance tends to trend with where the analysts are going. The deteriorating view suggests that the rally could slow down.

“If an American analyst turns optimism down, it may be enough for the carpet to pull out of what many consider to be an extremely expensive stock market, flirting with historic maximums?” Edwards wrote.

In recent weeks, shares have faced several obstacles that could be permanently problems for US investors.

Chinese company Deepseek At the end of January, he released a new AI Chatbot, threatened OPENAI CHATGPT with lower costs and questioned a huge amount of AI infrastructure in the US. Flip-Flopping President Donald Trump on customs policy has also been injected the uncertainty. And questions about the power of the US economy have appeared this week when Walmart warned against the lower expected sale and exploration of consumer sentiment of the University of Michigan showed that consumers are still concerned about inflation.

Whether they are catalysts for longer -term pullback is still unknown. Most Wall Street strategists have a bullish price target for the S&P 500 at the end of the year.

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