This year's unusually warm winter in northern India is a risk for wheat crop, experts warned and added that this could again support inflation pressures.
India is the second largest producer of wheat and wholesale prices of the terminals in the world, which in January began to rise in front of the new crop.
While the government remains the hope of good wheat harvest that would help keep prices under control, unusually warm winter is a threat. The Indian Meteorological Department predicted that most parts of India would experience in February above normal temperatures and under normal precipitation. However, western interference is expected to intervene in the next few days north and northwest, which could help the crop of wheat.
Paras Jasrai, the main economic analyst in India Ratings and Research, noted that rising temperatures contributed to uncertainty to the global economic environment that is at the peak of the new tariffs. “January 2025 recorded higher than normal temperatures, if the predominant temperature in February (which was higher than normal) continues until March 2025, this will have an adverse impact on the production of RABI, which can slow down the release of food inflation. The growing trend in wheat prices is therefore a key follow -up, ”he said in the January wholesale inflation data.
In January 2025, WPI inflation increased to 2.31% from 2.37% with food prices. The wholesale inflation in the food index was 7.47%at a five -month -old minimum last month. However, wholesale inflation in wheat began to rise and was 9.8%in January, which is almost two years of maximum. Monthly on a monthly basis, wheat inflation increased by 1.76%.
Quant Eco's research has also noted that after dry and warm January IMD predicts similar conditions that prevail in February, with maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal in most parts of the country. “If this trend persists in March, then it could have an adverse impact on crops such as wheat, mustard, chickpeas, apple,” he warned. In January-25, the average collision was 72% lower than normal, while the average average temperature was the third highest since 1901.
Meanwhile, retail inflation measured by the consumer price index remains on the trajectory and in January 2022 it came to 4.31%, with analysts expected to drop by about 4%in the coming months. Retail inflation of cereals and products was 6.24% of 6.51% in December 2024.
