Asian economies are scrambling to please Trump, as the US President connects the tariff threats

Since Donald Trump's mutual tariff is waving on the horizon, many Asian economies that have large trade surpluses with Washington are scrambling to negotiate favorable solutions with the American president to prevent the sake of higher duties.

Trump said on Friday that he will announce the mutual tariff – duties commensurate with those imposed on American goods by the countries concerned – as soon as the effect enters immediately. Trump did not specify the countries that will strike, but indicated that it would be a widespread effort to help eliminate the American trade deficit.

While the details are still unclear, “the import tariff in the United States is likely to increase for most emerging Asian economies,” a team of analysts in Barclays said on Monday, with the exception of Singapore and Hong Kong, which the United States has trade surpluses.

According to the World Trade Organization estimates, most economies in Asia apply the average definitions of imports compared to the United States as of 2023. He led India with a simple average of 17 % Amended by countries with the most preferred situation, Compared to the United States, which meets 3.3 %. The United States has a MFN position with most major economies, with the exception of Russia.

China topped the trade surplus with the United States last year with $ 295.4 billion, followed by $ 123.5 billion in Vietnam, $ 74 billion in Taiwan, 68.5 billion dollars in Japan, and 66 billion dollars in South Korea, 66 billion dollars, According to the American Census Office.

“Just because these economies have evaded the customs tariff at the present time, (this) does not mean that they can breathe easily,” said Stephen Angrik, major economists in Moody Analytics, told CNBC. “

These countries, with the exception of Vietnam, did not spare Trump's opening tariff thanks to its deep security relations with Washington and the large investments in the United States, but they should not be very comfortable. “

The surplus of Vietnam's trade with the United States increased by approximately 18 % annually A record in the past year. Country The average average definition rate On MFN partners reached 9.4 %, according to World Trade Organization data.

The imported drinks and tobacco in the country face up to 45.5 % of the customs tariff on average, while groups such as sugars, sweets, fruits, vegetables, clothes and transport are subject to a tariff between 14 % and 34 %.

Trump, who called Vietnam in 2019 “barely The worst one“ From commercial practices, he did not make any general notes on the nation after his re -election in November.

Hanoi has made efforts in recent months to find concessions with Washington on trade. In November, the country pledged to buy more Aircraft and natural gas texture and other products From the United States

Vietnamese Prime Minister Fam Minh Cennah last week He asked the members of the Council of Ministers to prepare for influence From a possible global trade war this year.

Vietnam was a major beneficiary in the commercial barriers that Trump imposed on Beijing in his first term, prompting manufacturers to divert production abroad. Consequently, Southeast Asia has become one of the largest beneficiaries of foreign direct investment from China.

The United States may double the definitions of Vietnam to 8 % if it is imposed “full perfectional reciprocity”, Michael One, a prominent currency analyst in MUFG Bank He said in a note Monday. However, it expects a less extreme position in the country, with a “sector tariff” as a possibility.

New Delhi in Federation budget earlier this month, decreased definitions On a range of products including motorcycles, electronic commodities, critical minerals and Li -ion batteries. Finance Minister Tuhn Kanta Bandy He said in an interview “We point out that India is not a tariff.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi According to what was reported to be ready to discuss more The customs tariff exceeds dozens of sectors and buy more power and defense equipment from the United States at its meeting with Trump later this week.

India's surplus with the United States, its third largest commercial partner, It reached 45.7 billion dollars last year. It is worth noting that the imported agricultural commodities in the country were subjected to duties of 39 % huge.

During the first period of Trump, he had warm relationships with Modi, but during his campaign to re -election, Trump rose India called “a very large aggressor” With definitions.

In a phone call with Modi last month, Trump stressed the importance of buying more security equipment in the United States to reachA fair bilateral commercial relationship“According to the White House statement.

Some market monitors put forward the idea that the two sides may resume the discussion about the long -awaited length American Free Trade Agreement. Joe Biden's administration was According to what was reported by the interest of India In exploring the Free Trade Agreement, the Indian local media reported, referring to the country's Minister of Trade and Industry.

“Such a deal now requires significant discounts in customs tariffs by New Delhi because it has much higher tariff rates than Washington; Trump believes in a degree of reciprocity.” In the Council of Foreign Relations.

Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia Adviser at TENEO, said India can also offer the transfer of oil imports from Russia to the United States in line with Trump's plans to enhance oil and gas exports.

Analysts, analysts, said, such as Prime Minister Shigro Ishiba, and it seems that Japan has obtained a positive relationship with Trump and could be protected from the higher definitions. A visit to Zouna to Washington concluded During the weekend.

Tokyo maintains A relatively low tariff is about 3.7 % The countries with a MFN case, according to the data of the World Trade Organization. “This is the small range of great increases in definitions on Japanese goods,” said Kyuhei Maurita, the chief Japanese economist in Nomura in the Monday note.

During the summit last week, Japan He agreed to import more natural gas From the United States and expressed interest in a project to deliver liquefied natural gas through a pipeline from North Alaska.

The two leaders also agreed to a compromise that instead of obtaining Steel US Steel, Nippon Steel will invest in Japan “in the American company. Ishia said that Japan will provide the United States' solid technology for the factory better products in the United States.

Japan, which was The largest foreign investor in the United States For five consecutive years, He also pledged to expand this investment To 1 trillion dollars, from 783.3 billion dollars in 2023.

“While Japan may not avoid all the effects of US tariff policies in the future, Tokyo may avoid the targeted treatment that was seen with countries such as Canada, Mexico and China,” James Brady, Vice President of Tenio said in the Saturday note.

“He may even hope to obtain a more lenient business than other major economies, as it seems to have the most preferred Trump's position,” said Brady.

Beijing scaleS -including 15 % of coal and natural gas, 10 % duties on crude oil, agricultural equipment, cars and captured trucks – modest and restricted.

The tariff package is estimated to cover China's imports of $ 13.9 billion from the United States in 2024, according to the data collected by Nomura, which represents 8.5 % of China's total imports in the United States and only 0.5 % of China's total imports.

Tommy Sheh, head of Macro -Asia Research at OCBC, said in a Monday note that this is much less than the $ 50 billion goods that target the first period of Trump.

Xi added that “the criteria” approach “indicates that” China chooses a more diverse response “, with non -fire measures such as export controls and organizational investigations in American companies, while leaving space for more negotiations.”