Unlock Digent Editor FREE
Roula Khalaf, editor of FT, chooses her favorite stories this weekly newsletter.
“The world will not be waiting for us,” Friedrich Merz said when he celebrated the victory of his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the German parliamentary elections on Sunday. But waiting is exactly what we have to do to take the new coalition too much in Berlin.
After four years of drift and dysfunction, Germany needs a stable, effective and ambitious government. Europe also longs for it. The foundations of post -war success of Germany are falling apart. Open markets are closed by American protectionism and Chinese state capitalism. The US security guarantee for Europe is all, while Russia is a growing threat. And a disturbing minority in Germany loses faith in the main policy – although estimated Sunday participation is an impressive proof of the overall commitment of Germany to a democratic process (take note, JD Vance).
The match with these huge problems would be a high command for any government. However, politics in Germany as elsewhere in Europe is increasingly fragmented and polarized. After bruises, where the mainstream parties often focused on themselves, Merz must now prove that it can be a conciliator, which is not an apparent feature. Although the CDU was a clear winner and can claim Chancellor, he has gained an estimated 29 percent of the vote – which, in addition to the last elections in 2021, ranks as the worst result of the party since 1949. when the Social Democrat joined office.
Merz's simplest variant is a large coalition with Social Democrats (SPD) – but without Scholz, who refused to serve under the leader of the CDU. After almost four years, when the serpentine coalition with Greens and the liberal free democrats failed, Scholz forever took his side for the worst defeat in 137 years. The magic in opposition would make the SPD good, but there is a rule and alternatives for Merz would be worse.
The CDU and SPD should agree on tax cuts, more public investments, higher defense expenditure and inclusion as asylum seekers. But the conversations could be long and hard, last but not least because Merz drove his side to the right. He went through a parliamentary proposal that demanded a drastic immigration intervention with the support of the far right alternative for Germany, while insisting that he would never work with him. Few votes won him, just like a monkey rarely, but it burned confidence with the SPD.
The large coalition agreement is feasible. The question is whether it will be more than the lowest common denominator. It is actually a three -way link, due to the tendency of the CSU, the Bavarian sister side of the CDU, freelance. If they need the Green support to create a parliamentary majority, the chances of running cohesive, proper governments are lean.
Germany must make some radical decision, such as the reform of the constitutional debt brake to relax public investment, finding money on a permanent increase in defense expenditure, and agrees that the EU will provide more financial firepower. Merz appeared around these problems during the campaign. Only in its final stages (thanks to the embrace of AfD Trump's administration) the competition began to reflect a vertigious pace of changes in global matters.
It was Sunday evening, when the votes were calculated, Merz revealed what could become a decisive mission of his Chancellor. His goal, he said, was to “reach independence” from the US as the Trump administration was “largely indifferent” to European fate.
It's an ambition vault. Theoretically, this could unify the CDU and SPD in any government of the national emergency situation, especially if the center-legged fell behind Boris Pistorius, the popular and Hawkish Minister of Defense in the outgoing coalition. However, the SPD could face the necessary victims and there is no warranty that the required two -thirds majority in both houses of parliament will change the debt brake.
German partners of Germany are desperately trying to act boldly to revive its economy and read. If they do not do so, it will only be at risk of competitiveness and security of the EU, but also the survival itself. Given that the AfD is waiting to earn public disillusionment with the ability of established parties, the next four years of the dithering government would end in a disaster.
