Larry Kudlow: Did the so -called recession end?



“Recession canceled: US industrial production jumps on record high.” That was the morning headline on the Zero Hedge website. Too often overlooked industrial production is a fundamentally important indicator on the part of the economic health offer. The February index moved to 104.2, hardly to the top of the previous record registered during the first term of Donald Trump at the end of 2018. If you look under the hood of the production index, it is even better.

Production increased nine tenths by 1% under the guidance of motor vehicles and parts that jumped an incredible 8.5% per month. The output of top technologies increased by 1.4% in February and is now more than 26% per year over the last 3 months. And then the business equipment, which is so important, increased by 1.6% in February and almost 24% per year in the last 3 months.

The giant profit in the February commercial equipment can be driven by expectations of a return to 100% immediate expenditure, including the construction of the factory-the new additional wrinkle for the Trump growth program. It is also possible that foreign investments add torque to the number of production and facilities-front negotiations 2. April announcement of Trump's mutual trade policy.

The defect is that many domestic companies could remodel trade policy in January by supplying foreign imports-which would technically reduce GDP. But when you see that production, production and business equipment in principle shows up Healthy Party Supply Economy. And the party of demand was also quite good in February as The basic retail sales number jumped 1% and now run 3.8% per year in the last 3 months.

In addition, in February, housing has grown by more than 11%. Housing has been in a slump in recent years, and Trump's administration has embarked on a large plan of deregulation to release the soil and somehow stop the Blue State site to suffocate any new design. But at least Mortgage rates dropped Almost half a percentage point to 6.6% – and that could stimulate something like a revival of housing. What's more, all of them came to the tamed side at the inflation value for February.

Liberal journalists, of course, promote an offer “Tariffs are disasters” of the narration. We go to the recession they say. No waiting for a minute, inflation will go to the sky they say. No hold on, they are tariffs that destroy the stock market. In fact, all these unproven theories are likely to prove very badly. Although the liberals are so hard to stick to Trump.

Oh, one last thought: Republicans in the house and the Senate must move On the Tax Reducing Program. It sinks the recessionists once and for all.

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