- Investors were forced to count With the obvious fact, Trump seriously introduces considerable tariffs to several, not all of all, American business partners. Although there are a lot of riots, Morgan Stanley The investment manager Jim Caron said that traders were well equipped to map how different scenarios could affect the global economy and earnings of the company.
President Donald Trump 25% tariff The car supplies were pushed on Thursday, but the S&P 500 and other main indices kept relatively stable. It could be another sign that investors are increasingly self -confidence markets They did it around the “uncertainty of the peak of tariffs” as Jim Caron said, CEO of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, although there are probably plenty confusion It will come around American business policy.
Shares rose and started a week after the news from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg He said that the administration is considering narrowing the scope of the so -called “mutual tariffs“He was unveiled on April 2, which the President described”Liberation day“No matter what is revealed, Caron said Luck At the beginning of this week, investors are better prepared to respond to this development than when the shares rushed at the beginning of this month.
“There is a difference between uncertainty and volatility,” said Caron, Chief Investment Director of Portfolio Solutions Group.
Markets greatly despise the former, he said, because it is impossible to quantify, for example, whether the president is just talk hard on taxation of imports as negotiating tactics. Now investors have been forced to count on the apparent fact of Trump seriously About the implementation of the essential tariffs on several, not all of all, American business partners.
Of course, it is impossible to determine the extent of these tariffs in advance, it does not matter what industry will be affected by the most difficult or whether retaliation from other countries will lead to global trade war. However, traders can map different scenarios affecting the global economy and corporate earnings, said Caron, who called “Volatility Management”.
“It on the financial markets,” he said, “we are really equipped to manage and understand.”
Investors have alleviated expectations for the economy this year. Goldman Sachs recently launched Her projection for GDP growth from the US from 2.4% to 1.7%, Caron said that it became a consensus of Wall Street.
As for the impact of tariffs on inflation, Caron quoted the chairman of the federal reserve Jerome Powell press conference Last week. The head of the US central bank said that a one -time shock for prices would result in “transitional“Or temporary, inflation while indicating the chain response of the escalation increase in prices remains a threat.
Again, the re -nature of Trump's tariff threats brought S&P 500 to the correction area until 13 March, when the index dropped by 10% of the historic maximum in mid -February. Tech-heavy Nasdaq The composite in this range threw 14%, but both indices have since gathered by more than 3%.
Will the “American uniqueness” trade last?
Caron said his team considered DIP an opportunity to buy in America and Europe. In recent years, investors have been much better to park their money in US stocks than anywhere else. However, the chaotic fire of the policy announcement from Trump's administration has markets in the trade.
While the S&P 500 in 2025 dropped by almost 3%, the stock over the pond increased like a continent is preparing on dramatic defense and infrastructure expenses in the middle worry of us abandoned. The Pan-European Stoxx 600 is 7%year-on-year, while in Germany, where the government has reached an agreement on a potential unlocking of $ 1 trillion in new expenditure, the DAX country has jumped by 12%.
Meanwhile, the S&P China 50 Index increased by more than 16%, although Trump increases the tariffs to China by 20% since its term of office, inflammation increasing tension between world superpower. Optimism about the Chinese technology sector and AI's ability has increased significantly since Surprising success Deepseek's model R1. Joe Quinlan, who oversees the market strategy for wealth management divisions Bank of America And Merrill Lynch said that Wall Street is optimistic about the government's efforts to increase consumer demand.
“China really got a fiscal Bazooka,” he said. “With monetary policy is really aggressive.”
Monthly Bank of America Fund manager overview It was found that 69% of respondents said that the “American uniqueness” reached the peak and reported the largest decline in US capital because BOFA began to conduct the survey in 1994.
However, investors are careful when looking abroad. Stephanie Link that manages a $ 6 billion portfolio as the main investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, Luck At the beginning of this month, it is wary of the persecution of profits in Europe, reporting that stricter regulation weighs profitable margins.
She feels even less comfortable about China and her authoritarian regime and remarks the mysterious disappearance of the founder Alibaba Jack at. Before shake With Chinese President Xi Jinping at the event last month, she was seen only in public after criticizing the Chinese financial regulatory bodies in 2020.
The link is more bull Indiawhere she noticed a company as Apple they are movement Their supply chains to reduce the exposition of China – and the growing middle class, said, support growth.
For investors it makes sense to look for some diversification, she said with trading with S&P 500 for about 22 times forward earnings. The 20 -year -old Index diameter was about 16, according to to fact.
“I think we have American uniqueness,” Link said at the beginning of this month, “but I think it comes at a very high price.”
At least some investors believe that the tariff image is so slightly cleaned.
This story was originally listed on Fortune.com
