It is not easy to make the stakeholders of an anxiety economy of $ 4 trillion. But that's exactly what US President Donald Trump has done with his mutual threat of tariffs. From Dalal Street to Mint Street, from meeting rooms to political corridors, everyone is waiting for a surprise that Trump pulls out of the sleeve of 2 April.
India has one of the highest average customs rates in the world. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), this was 12 % in 2023-24 compared to 2.2 % for the US.
Trump, a perfect negotiator, accumulates on pressure on his part. His statements of mutual tariffs are common. The latest is March 19, when in an interview with Breitbart News, “I believe India is likely to decrease these tariffs, but 2 April we will charge them the same tariffs that charge us”.
Here is the view of what global agencies say about the impact of Trump's mutual mutual tariffs on India.
S&P Global: India protected
The latest news is the global assessment of S&P, which says the robust economy and low US exposure protect India from the effects of Trump tariffs. The tariffs are likely to have a limited indirect impact, as the Indian export sector represents only over a tenth of its GDP.
However, some sectors could be disturbed. “The Indian low exposure in the US reduces tariff risks, but indirect effects such as trading redirects into the ground could hit the branches of steel and chemicals,” she said in a report with S&P.
The rating agency added that most of the Indian companies that evaluated will last a temporary deceleration of earnings.
Fitch: India somewhat isolated
In India, Fitch maintained 6.5 %growth in 2025-26. However, he warns that “more aggressive than the expected” US business policy could pose a great risk for growth forecast.
According to Fitch, “Business trust remains high and loan surveys point to the ongoing two -digit bank loans to the private sector” and added that India is somewhat isolated from the American tariffs “due to low relying on external demand”.
Moody's: Sectoral Impact
Companies in automotive, steel, chemicals and business services in South and Southeast Asia are most exposed to Tit-for-Fat tariffs, which could reduce demand and increase costs, Mooda's evaluation said in the report. However, sectors such as mining, oil and gas, transport, investment holding companies and proteins and agriculture are best suited to resist the impact, a rating agency said. Relief include strong domestic operations, diversified supplier chains and American operations.
Regarding steel and chemical companies, the proposed US tariff measures will have a minimum direct impact, but divert excess steel and petrochemicals to other markets, including Asia, and contributes to a high offer in the region. This would weaken prices and therefore reduce the profitability of these companies.
IT companies have a better position to absorb increased costs. According to the agency, although not subject to tariffs, business services providers are exposed to changes in US immigration policy that could reduce the talent fund for companies operating in the US relying on foreign workers.
Moody's also says that Reliance Industries, which exports approximately half of its production from their oil segment to chemicals, would probably indirectly expose business restrictions between countries. However, the strong balance sheet of society is considered to be a absorbing potential of decrease in demand or profits.
A negative impact on growth
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, in the meantime, predicts the Indian GDP to hit 10-60 BPS from Trump tariffs. “India's Gross Exports to the US Is One of the Lowest Among Its Emerging Market Peers at Around 2.0% of GDP. However, In Case of Global Tariffs on All Countries from the US, India's Domestic Activity Exposure to US FINAL DEMAND WOULD BE RUGHLY TWIC VIA Exports to Other Countries, and Would Likely Result in a Potential Domestic GDP Growth Impact of 0.1-0.6 Percentage Point, ”Goldman Sachs Said in Its Report.
The Goldman Sachs report reports that there are three ways that the US can store tariffs to India-on all products imported from India with an average difference in weight, and that it corresponds to Indian tariffs to each product or non-tariff barriers such as administrative barriers, import licenses, etc.
