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“Europe has to take care of its own defense,” says the new geopolitical cliché, but that doesn't make much sense. “Europe” consists of countries whose interests vary unrecognizable depending on their distance from Russia. The turn of Donald Trump to Moscow restores the Geography of the Cold War. We see the return of “Eastern Europe” and “Western Europe”.
European geography is changing regularly. Take the 1983 essay “The UNESPED WEST” of 1983 from 1983. At that time, Soviet satellites were referred to as “Eastern Europe”. In fact, they said Kundera, were “Central Europe” – part of the West as long as the Red Army “kidnapped” them in 1945.
“What is Central Europe?” Kundera asked. “The uncertain zone of small nations between Russia and Germany.” And what was the “small nation”? “The one whose existence may be questioned at any moment; a small nation may disappear and knows.”
The small nations of Central Europe joined the “Eastern Europe” in 1945. After 1989, when communism fell, they joined “Europe”. In 1999, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic entered Then And they got a geographical upgrade: they joined Transatlantic West, which stretched from San Francisco to Warsaw.
Last week, Trump seems to have dissolved the West. “It begins to look like the end of NATO,” says Steven Everts, who runs the European Union institute for security studies. Article 5 NATO obliges Member States to prevent each member that is attacked. The most likely location of the attack is Baltics. Asked by a journalist about the eastern side of NATO Trump, he said: “I am very determined Poland“Asked further on Baltics, he stood up on a commitment.
Where is Poland et al now located? They are probably not in a single military entity called “Europe”. After all, Western Europeans or Americans never went and died for Eastern Europeans – not for Danzig in 1939 for Budapest in 1956, nor Prague in 1968. Western Europeans lived well while Soviet ruled Eastern Europe. This means that the term “European defense” is like an insurance system for people living in a hurricane zone in which people expected to pay the most to the system, do not live in the zone.
The head of the French official told me that Putin's aggression, albeit deplorable, was not France in the end. “We have our nuclear umbrella,” the shoulders shrugged. Putin could theoretically attack France or Britain, but this is very unlikely due to his weak army and the historical limits of the Russian “near abroad”, its zones of influence. Southern Europe is even safer. On Sunday before the Russian invasion in 2022, I sat in the sun at the lake in Madrid, in the middle of lunch and I realized: Russia is not a Spanish problem.
Germany is less safe. Putin probably couldn't even think of it, but because Germany has no nukes, he can try nuclear blackmail. The Germans and other Europeans are now asking for sharing a French nuclear umbrella. This would expose them to a friendly form of blackmail, because France would extract a lot in return. France, however, certainly does not expand its umbrella on Baltics – the country will most likely need it, but which have nothing to offer. France will not risk a nuclear war with Russia for Lithuania.
Suddenly, Eastern Europe is reappearing, while Finland and Sweden joined the old Soviet bloc. These countries quickly build their militants. Even several other GDP points for defense do not bind to the risk of Russian invasion.
The study Catherine de Vries of Bocconi University and Stephanie Hofmann of the European University Institute shows that the country is in Moscow, the more they confirm the statement: “EU defense expenses should increase.”
I suspect that Europeans will find money to finance Ukraine. We can Outpend Putin. However, its willingness is his willingness to get rid of Russian blood. Good society appreciates the lives of its citizens, but this is a handicap in the war. The cost of dying is extremely high in today's Europe, where 20 -year -olds can expect to live around 80 years. If European troops are ever sent to Vilnius, the pro-19-wing parties will immediately demand “peace” (which means surrender).
I gave it to the main Eastern European politician that Western European countries take care of the wars in Eastern Europe. He replied, “We know. That's why some of our countries ask, “Why don't we attack Russia now, instead of sitting and waiting for us to attack us?” “Small nations that may disappear have everything at stake.
E -mail simon on simon.uper@ft.com
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